It’s looking more and more certain that the U.S. Supreme Court will decide whether the healthcare reform legislation’s individual mandate is constitutional. The question is, when?
You’ve likely heard that a federal appeals court in Ohio recently upheld the constitutionality of the reform law — the first ruling handed down from the circuit court level.
Decisions from two other circuit courts are pending.
The Ohio ruling was 2-1, and included a thumbs-up on the legislation from a Republican-appointed judge — the first of its kind since the numerous challenges to healthcare reform began wending their way through the judicial process.
Potential timetables
So when’s the case likely to go before the Supreme Court?
Tough to say. If the other two appeals court rulings uphold the law, it might not go before the high court at all. Most observers don’t see that happening, however.
Thus, the Supreme Court’s schedule is the most useful way to figure out when the case might be heard.
The court hears cases starting in early October and issues decisions by the end of June. So it’s possible a case could be brought before the panel this fall — but that would be a very tight schedule, since two circuits haven’t even ruled yet.
So at this moment, it appears that the case would most likely make it onto the 2012 docket, with a decision coming down in the first half of 2013.
Which is perilously close to Jan. 1, 2014, when most of the key provisions of the reform law formally kick in.
Could be a close call.
