January Turnover Warning: 38% Plan Job Searches

The great job freeze of 2025 is starting to thaw – and January turnover risks are rising. HR has a short window before employees start job hunting.

Many employees stayed put, not because they were satisfied, but because ongoing layoffs and slower hiring made the job market feel risky. That caution is fading now.

Employees Are Rethinking Loyalty in 2026

Heading into 2026, the question shifts from “Can I afford to leave?” to “What are my options now?” For many employees, January turnover begins with browsing, not quitting.  

Early-year intent matters more than resignation data because it shows up sooner. By the time someone quits, the decision is usually made. 

38% Plan to Start Job Hunting in January

More than a third (38%) of employed U.S. workers plan to look for a new job in the first half of 2026, up from 27% in July 2025 and 29% one year earlier, according to new research from Robert Half. 

“Many workers felt the need to stay put in 2025, but we’re beginning to see signs of a thaw as we head into the new year,” Dawn Fay, operational president of Robert Half, said in a press release. “Career growth and development are back in focus, and if an employer cannot offer those opportunities, workers no longer feel compelled to stay.”

The survey also points to what’s pushing employees toward a job search:

• Better benefits (36%)
• Limited career advancement opportunities at their company (34%)
• More competitive pay (33%), and
• Burnout (24%).

This is when “quick question” pings start hitting HR: benefits details, pay timing, growth paths. That’s the pivot point, because those questions tell you where employees feel stuck and where managers need tighter talking points fast.

The risk isn’t evenly spread across the workforce. Tech and healthcare workers (44%) were most likely to say they plan to look for a new job, followed by Gen Z professionals (42%) and working parents (42%). If those groups are key to keeping work covered, job searching can start causing problems before anyone quits. You’re likely to see more shift gaps, more pay and benefits questions, and more managers asking HR for help.

Why January Is a Retention Risk for HR

Job searches rarely start with a resignation. They start with a question – usually sent to HR.

Employees update LinkedIn, check salary ranges and ask friends about the market. By the time someone gives their notice, they’ve often been thinking about leaving for weeks or months.

January is when pay, benefits and career comparisons start showing up. Benefits are fresh after open enrollment, pay feels locked in for the year, and career questions get louder as people picture another 12 months in the same role.

HR sees the early signs first: off-cycle compensation questions, sudden requests for job descriptions, benefits re-explanations, and a spike in “just curious” conversations. Replacing even one employee costs 50-200% of their salary once you account for recruiting, onboarding, and lost productivity. That’s why January is a risk window, even when headcount looks stable on paper.

3 Talking Points Every Manager Needs for January Check-Ins

If you do one thing before January, make it this: Ask managers to hold a 10-minute check-in with every direct report in the first two weeks of the year. That’s when you can still influence decisions before job hunting ramps up.

Give managers three simple talking points:

• What is stable in the role right now
• What could change in 2026, such as priorities, structure, workload and skills, and
• What progress should look like over the next six months.

If pay or promotions aren’t decided yet, say that plainly. Straight talk beats a pep talk. “Here’s what I know, here’s what I don’t know yet, and here’s when I will follow up” can interrupt a job search before it gains momentum.

Beat January Turnover: Retention Checklist for HR Leaders

Use this checklist in the first two weeks of January to spot early job-search intent and respond before exits begin.

• Run 10-minute manager check-ins in the first two weeks of January. Use the three talking points above. 
• Watch high-risk groups for early job-search signals. Look for “what happens if” questions, off-cycle comp asks, job description requests and “just curious” pings.
• Get ahead of the top drivers. Send a short benefits refresher right after open enrollment, set expectations on career growth in 2026, and be direct about pay timing.
• Track leading indicators weekly in January. Focus on benefits inquiries, internal transfer interest and manager escalations tied to pay or role questions.
• Close the loop on unknowns fast. If pay or promotions aren’t decided yet, set a firm follow-up date and stick to it.
• Review what you’re hearing by the end of January. Check completion on manager check-ins, review where questions are clustering, then adjust manager guidance for February.

The survey is an early signal about the potential for January turnover, not a forecast. When more employees say they’re reassessing their options heading into 2026, it means decisions are already forming before anyone hands in notice. The opportunity is in acting early, before exits begin.